
quantum · Protocol Upgrade · Crypto
$199K Vol · $103 24h · $7.3K liquidity · Live odds refresh every few seconds
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
2%
2% chance
$199K Vol · Ends Jan 1, 2027
2%
$199K Vol · $103 24h · $7.3K liquidity
Yes 1.8¢
2%
No 98¢
98%
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
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