Trump x Taliban mineral deal signed in 2026?

Rules · Market background

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Afghanistan (including the Taliban) sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that constitutes an agreement between the two countries explicitly involving Afghan minerals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any formal written agreement between the United States and Afghanistan that explicitly involves Afghan minerals will qualify, regardless of its scope, substance, duration, legal form, or significance. This includes narrow, technical, procedural, temporary, partial, single-issue, and non-binding agreements. Qualifying subject matter includes but is not limited to partnerships involving minerals, future rights to mineral resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to Afghan minerals. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Afghanistan. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Afghanistan as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Afghanistan have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Afghanistan by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released within 28 days of adoption, official and definitive announcements from the United States and Afghanistan regarding the text, or a consensus of major news agencies of record, may be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. If, on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the text of such an instrument has not been released and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, settlement may be postponed to allow for 28 calendar days after the date of adoption to pass pending release of the text. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Afghanistan and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Afghanistan. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States and Afghanistan and the officially released text of an instrument; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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